Simulate Your Life Before It Happens
This course teaches an operational method for testing complex choices in the mind before committing time, money, or reputation. It combines structured decision framing, systematic mental simulation, and rigorous evidence updating so you can surface realistic outcomes, quantify uncertainties, and choose with calibrated confidence. Modules cover defining success and constraints, building baseline and alternative scenarios, mapping first- through third-order consequences, and running branch-and-bound and counterfactual simulations. You will learn pre-mortem exercises, probabilistic scoring, sensitivity analysis, and practical stop rules to limit downside and preserve optionality. The training emphasizes explicit bias-control techniques—confirmation, optimism, availability—and integrates simple Bayesian updating and monitoring indicators so your simulations stay connected to reality. Instruction is practical: step-by-step templates, reproducible worksheets, worked examples, and decision protocols you can apply to hires, product launches, career moves, partnerships, and personal commitments. The approach is secular, evidence-based, and engineered for professionals who already make consequential choices and want a repeatable method to test them mentally and improve outcomes.
Instructor: T.I. Team
Level: everybody
Duration: 6 weeks
Price: €49
Course Curriculum
Module 1 — Frame the Decision: Define Success, Constraints, and the Simulation Boundary
- 1.1 The Decision Brief: What Are You Actually Deciding?
- 1.2 Define Success: Outcomes, Metrics, and Non-Negotiables
- 1.3 Reversible vs Irreversible: Choosing the Right Decision Protocol
- 1.4 Assumptions Inventory: What Must Be True for This to Work?
- 1.5 Time Horizons and Multi-Objective Choices: Preventing Short-Term Traps
- 1.6 Constraints, Resources, and Dependency Mapping
- 1.7 Bias Checkpoint I: Fast vs Slow Thinking in Decision Framing
- 1.8 Build the Simulation Sandbox: Variables, Scenarios, and Data Needs
Module 2 — Structured Scenario Simulation: Forecasting, Counterfactuals, and Consequence Chains
- 2.1 Baseline Simulation: The Most Likely Path If You Do Nothing Special
- 2.2 Alternatives Generation: Creating Real Options Instead of Binary Choices
- 2.3 Counterfactuals: Finding the Causal Levers That Change Outcomes
- 2.4 Branch-and-Bound: Managing Complexity Without Getting Lost
- 2.5 Consequence Mapping I: First-Order Effects Across Stakeholders
- 2.6 Consequence Mapping II: Second- and Third-Order Effects and Delayed Costs
- 2.7 Probabilistic Reasoning: Confidence Levels, Ranges, and Calibration
- 2.8 Sensitivity Analysis: Identify the Assumptions That Drive the Choice
Module 3 — Bias Control, Risk, and Evidence Updating: Making Simulation Reliable Under Pressure
- 3.1 Pre-Mortem: Assume It Failed—Why?
- 3.2 Failure Modes and Mitigations: Building a Risk Register You Will Actually Use
- 3.3 Black Swans and Tail Risk: Planning for the Unmodeled
- 3.4 Bias Checkpoint II: Confirmation Bias, Motivated Reasoning, and Counter-Advocacy
- 3.5 Risk Literacy: Frequencies, Base Rates, and Reading Odds Correctly
- 3.6 Evidence Integration: What to Measure, What to Ignore, and When to Update
- 3.7 Naturalistic Decision-Making: Recognition-Primed Simulation for Real Time
- 3.8 Decision Journaling: Calibration, Feedback, and Learning Without Self-Deception
Module 4 — Execution and Mastery: From Simulated Choice to Controlled Implementation
- 4.1 The Decision Meeting With Yourself: Commit, Defer, or Kill
- 4.2 Implementation Planning: Next Actions, Owners, and Timeline Control
- 4.3 Triggers and Monitoring Indicators: Keeping Reality in the Loop
- 4.4 Contingency Planning: Pre-Authorized Responses to Predictable Surprises
- 4.5 Stop Rules and Exit Ramps: Preventing Sunk-Cost Escalation
- 4.6 Post-Decision Reviews: Updating the Model, Not Just the Mood
- 4.7 Deliberate Practice for Scenario Simulation: Building a Trainable Skill
- 4.8 Capstone Protocol: Your Personal Scenario Simulation Operating System